As the leader of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis has left an indelible mark with his progressive vision and commitment to social justice. However, with his passing on April 21, 2025, at the age of 88, the question arises: who will be the next pope? The selection process, known as the papal conclave, involves cardinals under 80 voting in secret until a two-thirds majority is reached. While predicting the outcome is challenging due to the secretive nature of the conclave, several cardinals stand out as potential successors. Below, we explore the top candidates, their backgrounds, and their likelihood of becoming the next pope.

The Papal Conclave: How the Next Pope Is Chosen

Before diving into the candidates, it’s essential to understand the process. After the death of Pope Francis, cardinals worldwide gather in the Sistine Chapel for the conclave, a centuries-old tradition. Only cardinals under 80 can vote, and as of January 2025, there are 138 eligible electors. The process involves multiple rounds of secret ballots, with black smoke signaling an inconclusive vote and white smoke announcing a new pope. The chosen candidate needs a two-thirds majority, and the outcome remains uncertain until the final announcement.

Top Candidates to Succeed Pope Francis

While any baptized Catholic male is eligible, the next pope is likely to be a cardinal. Here are the leading contenders, known as papabili, based on their prominence, influence, and alignment with the Church’s current direction.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)

Pope Francis’s Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, is a leading candidate due to his diplomatic expertise and moderate stance. At 70, Parolin has been instrumental in Vatican diplomacy, brokering deals like the 2018 Vatican-China agreement. His deep ties to the Vatican bureaucracy and alignment with Pope Francis’s reforms make him a continuity candidate. However, his role in the China deal has drawn criticism, which could impact his chances.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67)

Known for his progressive views, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is a favorite among those seeking to continue Pope Francis’s inclusive agenda. At 67, Tagle, the Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, advocates for greater inclusion of LGBTQ individuals and divorced Catholics. If elected, he would be the first Asian pope, signaling a shift toward the Global South. His pastoral approach and charisma make him a strong contender.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69)

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, a close ally of Pope Francis, is the Archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Episcopal Conference. His progressive stance, focus on peacebuilding, and humanitarian work with the Sant’Egidio Community bolster his candidacy. Zuppi’s diplomatic missions, including peace efforts in Ukraine, have earned him global respect. At 69, he’s a strong contender for those favoring continuity.

Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary, 72)

For those seeking a conservative shift, Cardinal Péter Erdő, the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, is a prominent candidate. At 72, Erdő adheres to traditional Church teachings, opposing changes to marriage doctrine and liberal reforms. His experience as a canon lawyer and former head of the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences makes him a bridge to Eastern Christians. Erdő’s conservative stance could appeal to cardinals wary of Pope Francis’s progressive policies.

Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76)

Cardinal Peter Turkson, former head of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, is a well-known advocate for social justice, climate change, and poverty alleviation. At 76, his age may be a concern, but his global perspective and African roots make him a compelling candidate. Turkson could become the first Black pope, appealing to the growing Catholic population in Africa.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of Congo, 65)

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, at 65, represents a conservative African voice. As President of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, he has opposed Pope Francis’s progressive doctrines, such as blessings for same-sex couples. His candidacy would signal a conservative shift and highlight Africa’s growing influence in the Church.

Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk (Netherlands, 71)

A former physician and staunch conservative, Cardinal Willem Eijk, the Archbishop of Utrecht, is known for opposing Pope Francis’s progressive policies on marriage and communion. At 71, Eijk’s traditionalist views could resonate with cardinals seeking to revert to stricter doctrines. His medical background adds a unique perspective to his candidacy.

Cardinal Mario Grech (Malta, 67)

Cardinal Mario Grech, the Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops, is a key figure in Pope Francis’s push for a more inclusive Church. At 67, Grech advocates for reaching out to marginalized groups, aligning with Francis’s vision. His role in the Synod on Synodality gives him visibility among cardinals, making him a potential progressive candidate.

Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke (United States, 76)

Cardinal Raymond Burke, a prominent American conservative, is known for his opposition to Pope Francis’s liberal reforms, particularly on issues like divorce and LGBTQ inclusion. At 76, his age and polarizing views may limit his chances, but his influence among traditionalists keeps him in the conversation.

Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg, 66)

Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich, a Jesuit like Pope Francis, is a progressive candidate at 66. As a key advisor to Francis and a leader in the Synod on Synodality, Hollerich supports continuity in the Church’s inclusive direction. His European perspective and moderate stance make him a viable contender.

Factors Influencing the Next Pope’s Selection

The next pope’s selection will hinge on several factors:

  • Ideological Balance: Cardinals may seek a balance between Pope Francis’s progressive reforms and traditional Church teachings.
  • Geographical Representation: With Pope Francis appointing a diverse College of Cardinals, the next pope could come from Africa, Asia, or Latin America, reflecting the Church’s global reach.
  • Age and Health: Younger candidates, like Tagle or Ambongo, may be favored for a longer pontificate, while older candidates, like Turkson or Burke, face age-related concerns.
  • Diplomatic Skills: The next pope will need to navigate complex geopolitical issues, making candidates like Parolin or Zuppi appealing.

The Legacy of Pope Francis

Pope Francis revolutionized the Catholic Church with his focus on humility, social justice, and inclusivity. His appointment of 80% of the current cardinal electors ensures his vision will influence the conclave. Whether the next pope continues his progressive legacy or shifts toward conservatism, the decision will shape the Church’s future for generations.

Conclusion

The question of who will succeed Pope Francis remains open, with candidates like Pietro Parolin, Luis Antonio Tagle, and Matteo Zuppi leading the pack. The conclave’s secrecy and the Holy Spirit’s influence make predictions difficult, but the next pope will inherit a Church at a crossroads. Stay tuned for updates as the Catholic world awaits the white smoke signaling a new pontiff.